Pupil enrolment in Grade One in KwaZulu-Natal has plunged by 20% over the past four years – and experts believe a key cause is the direct and indirect effect of HIV/AIDS on already poor households.

There are almost 67 000 fewer Grade One pupils in KwaZulu-Natal this year than there were in 1998, according to Peter Badcock-Walters of the Health Economics & HIV/AIDS Research Division (HEARD) at the University of Natal.

This year’s 273 833 Grade Ones represent a 20% drop since 1998, when 340 379 pupils entered the system. Grade One intake would have to rise by 24% in 2002 to reach 1998 levels. After growth of between 3% and 5% in the nineties, enrolment dropped by 12% in 1998 and again by 24% in 2000. While this year’s enrolment was slightly higher than in 2000, this is mainly as a result of the change in school age policy.

Last year, large numbers of pupils under seven who would normally have entered school had to wait a year. Not only has enrolment dropped, says Badcock-Walters, but there have been wild fluctuations between and within districts. Last year, for example, pupil enrolment varied from a drop of 43% to a drop of 8%.

“In an area like Phoenix, there was a drop of 42% in 2000 but an increase of 64% this year,” said Badcock-Walters. “This massive fluctuation turns planning into guesswork and makes it very difficult to manage. Even with this 64% increase in Phoenix there were still 16% fewer pupils in Grade One this year than there were in 1998.”

He said a combination of factors could be responsible for the decline in enrolment, with economic stress as a key factor as households battled to find money for school fees, uniforms and transport in the face of growing health care and funeral costs.

“Poverty coupled to the impact of HIV/AIDS is making existing problems in education much worse,” said Badcock-Walters. A drop in fertility rates, infant and child mortality, home care needs for sick relatives and orphaning – all related to HIV/AIDS – had also influenced the enrolment figures. Badcock-Walters, who is involved in advising education authorities throughout Africa, recommended that the education departments in each province set up a dedicated HIV/AIDS management unit to develop an effective response to the crisis – another facet of which is the growing rate of HIV infection among teachers.

HEARD estimates that in spite of declining enrolment, teacher attrition rates – made worse by AIDS – will lead to a demand for up to 60 000 new teachers by the end of the decade, simply to maintain pupil:teacher ratios at their present levels.

Acting secretary general of education Mr Simeon Shamase said that while there was a general decline in enrolment countrywide, the drop in this province was “a cause for concern”. “I haven’t had access to the latest statistics, but it is not as if we are not doing anything about it. We have a strategy and action plan to deal with the problem, but the Education Department can’t address [HIV/AIDS] alone. We are working in partnership with the department of health and other initiatives.”

At present, said Mr Shamase, psychological services was the component within his department tasked specifically with dealing with HIV/AIDS. KwaZulu-Natal has the largest provincial school system in the country, with over 2,7 million pupils and about 76 000 teachers.