BARCELONA – The impact the AIDS epidemic is having now, will be worse in the years ahead and the way to change it’€™s course is to try and see where the epidemic is going rather than relying on crystal ball modeling.

Speaking at the 14^th World AIDS Conference, Professor Alan Whiteside, Director of Natal University’€™s HIV/AIDS Research Division said it was clear from the agenda that the scientists knew a great deal, but little was known on the social science (impact) of the epidemic.

He said despite shocking figures and predictions that 65% of deaths in South Africa would be AIDS-related by 2008 and that there would be close to two million orphans by 2010, that’€™s one in every 20 South African, the country still had an opportunity to start looking ahead.

‘€œBut at the moment there are few signs that this is happening, except at community level where people are desperately trying to deal with the impact of the epidemic,’€ Whiteside said.

He said research in Kwa-Zulu-Natal showed that there had been a steady decrease in grade one enrolment with about 100 000 enrolments lost.

‘€œWe don’€™t know why. Have they died, are they heading households, or do they simply not care,’€ Whiteside asked. ‘€œThe point is we don’€™t know.’€

A study in Zambia showed that there was an 80% loss of income when an AIDS death occurred and in Uganda families were shown to have less necessities such a bicycles once AIDS struck.

‘€œThe days of pilot projects are over, we need to know where and how to respond to the impact of the epidemic,’€ Whiteside added.

A barometer devised by Whiteside and colleagues measured the priorities of Africans and list the problems mentioned by at least 10% of the respondents.

In all the countries, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, AIDS and health featured as problems.

‘€œThis is the people’€™s agenda, we need to hear it. Human beings have rights and I feel at this conference the impact is a forgotten item on the agenda.’€