South Africa and its neighbouring countries have been grappling with the effects of climate change, with droughts becoming more frequent and severe in recent years. 

Earlier this year, over 61 million people were impacted by drought and extreme weather events from  El Niño. Several southern African countries’ crop production, livestock and water supplies were affected. This was the most severe drought during the January-March agricultural season in more than 100 years. 

While we often hear about the impact on crops and water supply, there’s a less visible but equally troubling consequence: an increase in violence against young people. 

A Silent Crisis

Drought doesn’t just mean less water; it brings economic struggles and food shortages, which create stress in families. Climate shocks like severe droughts worsen poverty, food insecurity and water scarcity, which in turn fuel violence. Economic stress and lack of resources create environments that amplify underlying violence, including sexual, emotional, and physical abuse. 

Recent research shows that adolescents and young people aged 13 to 24 years face alarming rates of violence during times of drought. The Violence Against Children Surveys (VAC) are national surveys for people aged 13 to 24 that measure the burden of violence experienced in childhood and early adulthood in sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia and Europe.

Dr Bothaina Eltigani, a medical doctor and researcher at the Department of Social Policy and Intervention at the University of Oxford, presented the findings from their research in five southern African countries: Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mozambique, and Zambia, at the recent Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) forum in Cape Town.

The study, based on data from the VAC surveys, highlights several key points:

• Increased Risk for Girls: Girls in drought-stricken areas are significantly more likely to face sexual violence compared to their male peers. “When we compare to boys, girls living in drought settings are 30.56% more at risk for sexual violence,” says Eltigani.

• Age Matters: Older adolescents (ages 18-24) are particularly more vulnerable to sexual and emotional violence during these times of drought. This age group may experience more complex social dynamics that can lead to increased violence.

• Rural vs. Urban Living: The study involved over 27,000 participants and included both rural and urban areas. Young people living in rural areas face heightened risks. “Rural residence exacerbates adolescents’ vulnerability to violence exposure during conditions of drought as it increases the risk of all violence forms except sexual violence,” says Eltigani.

Can the same be said for South Africa? 

While this particular study doesn’t include data from South Africa, a 2019 paper on the link between hot weather and rates of violence in the country suggests that raised temperatures alone cannot explain elevated levels of gender-based violence, but may rather act as a trigger for individual violent episodes. 

The article highlights that heat can have a significant impact on both our bodies and behaviour. High temperatures can cause discomfort, irritability, and emotional instability. In hot weather, people tend to become more aggressive. Men seem to be especially sensitive to heat-induced aggression. 

Hot weather can also change people’s behaviour, such as spending more time outdoors, which increases opportunities for violence. 

Moreover, alcohol consumption, which can trigger violence, tends to rise during hot weather, and dehydration – which is more common on hot days – can lead to mood swings, confusion, and anger. These factors combined make it more likely for violence to occur, particularly when the intent is to harm others rather than commit theft, like in robberies.

This is especially concerning in countries with already high rates of violence against women, like South Africa, where femicide rates are among the highest in the world.

GBV and extreme weather events

A systematic review published in the Lancet journal shows that floods, droughts, hurricanes, and heatwaves, increase the risk of GBV in different parts of the world.

The research revealed that, in times of economic hardship caused by disasters, families might marry off daughters early as a way to reduce financial burden. There was also an increase in intimate partner violence, sexual violence, and emotional abuse during and after these events, as people cope with stress, loss of control, and food insecurity. 

In shelters or camps for the displaced, women and girls are at higher risk of harassment and violence from strangers, relief workers, and even family members. Eltigani says understanding the connection between climate stress and violence is crucial for families and communities. 

“Our findings show that it is essential to adopt interdisciplinary programming by integrating climate adaptation measures, social protection measures and violence prevention interventions.” – Health-e News